有时我猜想在anthropic 和 openai IPO 之前什么类股会涨得多。我的直觉是软件类股。比如GOOG，又算软件，自己也有AI，还有云服务。

问GOOGLE，GOOGLE AI回答是：

1. Cloud Infrastructure (Hyperscalers) The AI boom requires massive amounts of computing power, and Anthropic relies heavily on the major cloud providers to train and run its AI models.Key Players: Alphabet (Google Cloud) and Amazon (AWS).Why they win: These companies aren't just selling cloud space. Both tech giants hold massive, multi-billion-dollar equity stakes in Anthropic and stand to make extraordinary windfalls when the company goes public.

2. Enterprise Software (SaaS)  Rather than building their own AI from scratch, software companies are integrating Anthropic's Claude to make their own products smarter and harder to replace.Key Players: Salesforce (CRM) and Zoom (ZM).Why they win: These legacy software businesses turned early-stage investments in Anthropic into billions of dollars in unrealized gains. Furthermore, integrating Claude helps them upsell premium AI features to their massive business customer bases.

3. Semiconductor & Hardware To satisfy Anthropic's seemingly endless hunger for computing capacity, data centers are buying custom processing chips and hardware at a record pace.Key Players: Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and specialized compute providers like CoreWeave.

所以：goog, amzn, msft, crm, nvda, avgo 是较好的选项，正好它们最近一两周表现还可以。

可是，离anthropic 和 openai IPO 还有几个月，股市不会直线涨上去。若anthropic 10月 IPO，那么股市8-9月应该有回调吧？

值得观察。我猜测，8月初主要的ER结束后，股市可能回调。

一个特例是苹果，它不把几千亿美元投进AI，却可以把别人的AI应用放进手机赚钱，所以没有过分投资带来的风险，现在比较受华尔街宠爱，可惜我没有。

但是我有很多银行股票，最近ER除了C之外表现很好。银行是AI的大赢家，帮IPO，发债券，自己也炒股赚钱，还利用AI提高效率(裁员或减少雇人)，总的来说，AI对于银行是利远大于弊。C为什么ER后表现不好，感觉是它们故意压价，可以回购。6月份stress test release之后，JPM说要回购$500亿美元股票，C回购$300亿美元股票，都很可观。不知道BAC回购多少。原则上它们会操弄股价，低价回购，之后会涨，只是我们不知道时机。但是，C目前的股价可以持有，JPM将来跌到330以下再考虑(ER之后卖了，我没有JPM)。