[讨论] U.S. banks should outperform over next six months

何鸿燊

David Pett

U.S. banks outperformed the broader market in the last quarter of 2010 and should continue their winning ways over the next six months, a new Deutsche Bank report says.

“Of the 18 banks we track, we expect 10 to beat expectations—mostly due to better than expected credit and low expectations in some cases,” said analyst Matt O’Connor, ranking JP Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and TCF Financial Corp. which was upgraded to Buy, as his top picks.

Mr. O’Connor said positive bank stock performance will be driven by better potential for capital deployment opportunities, less regulatory drag, nice valuations, and rising long-term rates that help protect net interest margins.

As well,  shares should be supported by more expense saving initiatives, credit improvement likely through the first half of 2011, M&A activity and loan demand that could surprise to the upside.

The analyst added that longer term challenges still remain plenty for U.S. banks, notably those related to elevated credit losses.


Read more: http://business.financialpost.co ... nths/#ixzz1ACBZUeH6


The Masters weapon of choice for a possible bullish Bank run -- Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF)
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (the Fund) seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index (the Index). The Index includes companies from industries, such as diversified financial services, insurance, commercial banks
, capital markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), consumer finance, thrifts and mortgage finance, and real estate management and development. The Fund utilizes a passive or indexing investment approach to attempt to approximate the investment performance of the Index.

As of Yesterday (Jan 4th) the XLF was made up of the following:
        Name                          Symbol                             Index Weight
1         JPMorgan Chase & Co.           JPM                                      8.7%
3         Bank of America Corp.           BAC                                      7.67%
4         Citigroup Inc.                          C                                        7.60%
5         BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY B         BRKB                                       7.41%
6         Goldman Sachs Group Inc.         GS                                        4.72%
7         U.S. BANCORP                           USB                                 2.74%
8         American Express Co.                 AXP                                        2.46%
9         MORGAN STANLEY                   MS                                       2.30%
10         MetLife Inc.                         MET                                        2.22%
11         Bank of New York Mellon Corp.         BK         2.03%
12         PNC Financial Services Group Inc.         PNC         1.70%
13         Prudential Financial Inc.                 PRU         1.58%
14         Simon Property Group Inc.                 SPG         1.53%
15         AFLAC Inc.                                          AFL         1.42%
16         Travelers Cos. Inc.                        TRV         1.36%
17         State Street Corp.                        STT         1.25%
18         CME Group Inc. Cl A                        CME         1.13%
19         ACE Ltd.                                       ACE         1.13%
20         Capital One Financial Corp.                 COF         1.07%