[原创] 美国应该抵赖其债务吗?

not4weak

有“慈禧或者汪精卫” 性格的朋友会说，你完全是自不量力，不识事务，能屈能升才是大丈夫，中国还需要埋头发展等等。的确，中国无论科技、经济、还是军事力量都不具备挑战美国的条件（也有例外，毛泽东时期就是一个，比起现在与“慈禧或者汪精卫”性格的朋友眼里应该更加落后才是，就算如此还是给了美国几个耳光，不是吗？），就算有些以弱胜强的历史，也不能说明中国就具备了挑战世界第一强国的可能性，我们不说是挑战，不会去挑战，我们只说一个“理”字，中国古语：“有理走遍天下”，意思就是有道理天下都有朋友，都会有支持。现在中国对美国的现在，就是一个理字，美国欠全世界人们的钱，已经资不抵债，中国领头组织一个专门负责美国债务问题的机构，这就是道理，欠债不还钱，还继续举债发展军备，到处打仗抢“银行（石油）”，同时大量印制借条（美元）抵赖债务，挟持全世界，那就更加没有了道理，而中国领头组织监督美国这种无赖行为的机构，这就是有理。一个有理，一个无理，正义在谁一边呢？

IMF ponders the improbable: Will U.S. default?

By Howard Schneider

Will the U.S. government ever default?

It's not a pleasant thought for anyone holding some of the roughly $9 trillion in U.S. government bonds and notes currently in public hands - or for anyone hoping the global economy can stay on an even keel.

But the economists at the International Monetary Fund are paid to ponder the improbable, and in papers published on Wednesday fund staff examined where the U.S. and other developed countries fit on a continuum between easy living and disaster.

We're farther along than you might think.

Using a concept known as "fiscal space" - basically how much latitude a country has to borrow before markets will shut off the spigot by demanding unsustainable interest rates - the IMF staff drew a bright red line through five nations it considers to be running out of room: Greece, Iceland, Italy, Japan and Portugal. Of the 23 developed nations it analyzed, four others, including the U.S., received a yellow caution flag.

Does it mean default is imminent or inevitable? Hardly - and in companion articles the fund discussed the steps being taken to control public debt, and broadly discounted the chance of an outright sovereign default among any of the advanced countries.

But consider the U.S. The IMF estimated a series of probabilities regarding the amount of increased debt a country might be able to sustain without hitting its projected point of no return.

In the case of the U.S., the fund said the odds were roughly three out of four that the country could increase its total debt to some degree without being penalized by investors -- logical considering that the debt is steadily increasing and interest rates remain low and steady.

However that probability falls to an even 50-50 if the amount of new borrowing were to exceed fifty percent of GDP - or about $7 trillion given the current, $14 trillion size of the U.S. economy.

That might seem like plenty, except for the fact that under current Office of Management and Budget projections the "fiscal space" may fast disappear. The OMB projects total U.S. debt to jump by about $4.7 trillion in the next five years, leaving little room after that.

Better than expected growth, of course, could add fiscal "space," but another recession could shrink it. As IMF researcher and report author Jonathan D. Ostry said, it is best to be cautious.

"Markets may give little or no warning," Ostry said, pointing to the recent troubles in Greece. "The debt limit is the point at which you bounce off to infinity. It is a point that you want to strenuously avoid."


European data hits markets; yen buoyed by Kan win- AP

European stock markets fell modestly Tuesday after disappointing economic data reinforced concerns about the recovery, while the Japanese yen struck a fresh 15-year high against the dollar as Japan's prime minister survived a leadership challenge.

not4weak

相信正义就是力量的人们，相信中国人将会是英雄国家的人们，我想你们应该知道这是中国的机会，也是摆脱美国挟持人类自救的机会。

组织这样的机构不是为了挑战美国，也不是为了让美国倒下去，事实美国早就倒下，资不抵债总是事实，如果是一家普通的公司，他早就尸骨无存，被拆掉拍卖一尽抵债了之。所以不需要再做让美国倒下去的挑战，已经没有任何必要。现在美国能够存活着，拿商业经营运作来说无非是资金流没有断，这个因素上面已经分析了很多，一是美国能够借得到，有国家怕他“倒闭”还不出钱，从而再多借些钱给他运作，而他自己本身也能印刷世界流通的借条（美元），二就是美国军事机器的强大，强大到足够抵消所有美国的债权国无法对他实施强制行为，最后就是美国凭借着强大的军事机器到处抢劫“银行”，拿取抵赖债务的资本。

所以，组织这样的机构不是为了美国倒，不具备对美国的挑战，而是规范美国不要做出威胁人类的行为，并且真实地评估美国的债务问题。比如美国需要钱，那么是可以的，就如上面笔者说的例子，俄罗斯不借给它，日本也会借它，来年日本不借了，俄罗斯也许就借给了它。结果，永远美国资金流不会断，就是资不抵债一万倍也不会破产，但全世界都将是美国永远的事实奴隶，都在为它创造财富。所以解决的办法，摆脱美国把全世界挟持成奴隶的法子，唯一就是各国协调好，通过一个机构借给美国钱，由这个机构来评定，比如日本、欧洲某国或者俄罗斯也或中国可以借钱给美国，但需要通过这个机构，由这个机构来决定借还是不借，借给多少，自然就做到了进出帐目有数字，有方向和有目的，否则除了美国债务越来越多，借出去的钱有去无回，美国有大笔的财政发展军备，结果更加不可能让债权人行使权力之外，还能得到什么呢？