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标题: [读书学习] 读后感系列贴 [打印本页]

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-11-26 09:24 标题: 读后感系列贴

读别人的文章或帖子是学习的重要手段。我虽然一直花时间阅读，但连续性和深刻性都不足，领域也有限。我在设想能否用持续写读后感的方式加强自己的阅读理解，对论坛也有利。

我打算从今天开始试搞一下这个读后感系列贴，细水长流，看能搞成什么样，也欢迎大家提意见。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-11-26 09:26

第一篇:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones112410.html

我注意到这篇文章的2点内容：
（1）SP500的50天线，“If we get a daily close on the S&P500 below the 50 period moving average, all bets are off.”因为9月以来的涨市没有象样的回调，造成一旦大跌不易煞车，空头大有可为。
（2）“It is critical for traders to follow the financial sector because the broad markets will go nowhere without their participation.”　所以金融若破位会是大跌的导火线。

作者: 大傻 时间: 2010-11-26 09:30

“所以金融若破位会是大跌的导火线。”

大傻说了多少天了撒。。。你看，别人一说，还要写读后感了。。。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-11-28 16:33

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle112610.html

要点：
（1）“it appears investors are selling the sectors that tend to do well in bear markets.”“investors appear to be favoring the sectors that do well during bull markets or at least at this time.”
（2）“The problem sector, however, the sector that is in a confirmed Descending Triangle pattern is the financial sector ”
（3）“Both small and mid cap equities tend to do well in the early to middle stages of bull markets ”“Large cap stocks, on the other hand, tend to lag in bull markets and particularly in the early to middle stages and this is something that may be suggested by the ambiguity of the S&P 500 itself. ”
（4）“I continue to believe the S&P500 will hit 1,300 in the next 3 to 6 months. ”

感想：只要金融能稳定下来，甚至以后逼空的话，美股会有一波涨势。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-11-29 08:36

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

“20/50 DMA Squeeze”？第一次听说。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-11-30 09:12

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

“今天第一不是普涨，，急拉的品种很单一，只有石油和金融垃圾被拉起来，，，况且是急涨，，而且，最重要的一点就是，全部拉到反压线上，今天反弹时如果品种买错了即便做多油水也不大，，，反之，TA 上看却给熊熊提供了绝佳的再空点”

大跌大涨前搞骗线是华尔街的老游戏。
今天的样子跟6/9，7/21很象，当然那时候是大涨前的骗线。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-1 09:00

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan113010.html

"The S&P has a superb looking cup and handle which is textbook except that the right rim is slightly higher than the left.

A target for this pattern would be over 200 S&P points higher."

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-1 19:41

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2270022.html

"今天这一跳,成为俺的灾难日,我总共有4单qqqq空单,全入水了,而4单也意味着满仓了...
来源: 捣乱者于 2010-12-01 11:11:59 "

很遗憾，捣乱者此帖是个教训贴。尽管他分4单入场，但允许前几单深套我认为是个错误的操作方式。

我自己也常说“尝试入场”，其实也是把资金分几单，尝试入场时候只投入第一单，等预计正确而第一单有利润后再考虑加第二单，同时把止损或止赢调近。
例子，本周一尾盘我就进了第一单做空，周二开盘不久又入第二单做空，同时设低整个仓位的止损，结果周二午后触发止损，整体微损而全cash，今天逃过一劫。
在第一单被套时候我是绝对不会再上第二单的，唯一考虑的是第一单继续挺下去还是割肉的问题。

作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2010-12-1 20:05

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2270022.html

"今天这一跳,成为俺的灾难日,我总共有4单qqqq空单,全入水了,而4单也意味着满仓了...
来源: 捣乱者于 2010-12-01 11:11:59 "

很遗憾，捣乱者此帖是个教训贴。 ...
ychen222 发表于 2010-12-1 18:41

经历过2009的人，基本不该犯这种错误，何况捣乱的优势在于牛市做多。。。不明白她最近怎么喜欢做空起来。。。再熊，还能熊过2008-09那阵子？。。。经济要稳定，是人心所向。。。无奈什么政府无论怎么差劲，无论办法怎么蹩脚无论将来后遗症会如何，但是现在，也必须尽全力挽救的。。。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-12-1 23:17

DL is nothing but a loser. S/he does not really understand what trading is. Probably s/he will never understand because s/he only enjoys showing off instead of making money.

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-2 09:04

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

"那么，为什么我目前暂时倾向于这个反弹仅仅是retest the SPX 11/05 highs呢？因为今天的ISEE Equities Only Index疯掉了，readings高达327，换句话说，就是散户call buy to open是put buy to open的三倍，类似的情况出现在今年四月份的顶部，当时ISEE Equities Only Index创下了348的历史纪录。当然，一天的spike也许不说明问题，因此我说“暂时”倾向于这仅仅是个反弹。"

老蛇比较关注日内的P/C统计，但我认为看多天的趋势才重要。
现在5天线的位置跟4月时候是没法比的。

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作者: 秋之皓月 时间: 2010-12-3 03:03

跌是主旋律，不过，捣乱又只能去摆地摊找本金了。。。。;heiheihei?

作者: wonder 时间: 2010-12-3 20:39

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2270022.html

"今天这一跳,成为俺的灾难日,我总共有4单qqqq空单,全入水了,而4单也意味着满仓了...
来源: 捣乱者于 2010-12-01 11:11:59 "

很遗憾，捣乱者此帖是个教训贴。 ...
ychen222 发表于 2010-12-1 18:41

可怜那些跟风的人！

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-6 09:12

周末没有看到非常有意思的东西（可能跟现在明了的形势有关）。
上张图充数吧。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-7 08:11

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

不加税当然对当前的经济/股市有利，股市当此关口，突破新高没有悬念了，O8对有钱人表善意，华尔街总得有点表示的。
另一方面，美元和美国国债会受到压力，将来利率升高的风险也大了。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-8 08:35

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swanson120610.html

"Now the market has gotten itself into an interesting position, because it has rallied back up to the top of the sideways range. It pulled back off of it, but has succeeded in holding up and is now near the long-term resistance of the top of the range - the 1220-1230 area of the S&P500.

If the market can break through that range and rally up to the 1250 area then it will be in a position to make another big leg up into the 1300-1400 area. In other words if it can breakout here then it can put on a big rally that will likely last for several months and probably lead to another big manic top."

"The market is at a key pivot point. The S&P500 is right below the 1230 area so it is at a point where it will either top immediately and turn down on everyone or else pause for a few days and then breakout to begin another big run that will last the rest of this year and probably into February or March."

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-9 09:04

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/yun120710.html

“An upside price target for the S&P 500 index could be projected at 1440 which is about an 18% advance as measured by the height of the cup. ”

“Chinese Stock Market Pattern:
Testing 17-Week Moving Average on Way to 4200?”

不过此人$SSEC在3000+时候预测A股继续大涨，比较SB。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-10 09:06

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID1926808

若不能从此处突破的话，这也是一种可能的走法。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-13 08:52

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 660602&cmd=show[s191974221]&disp=O

大行情才开始？

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-13 11:14

19# ychen222
哈哈。是有这种可能性啊。但也许是慢牛。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-14 09:02

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2289515.html

"正统的技术分析是从不预测行情的，它属于统计学范畴，给出的只是一个概率分析，也就是说技术指标只能给我们发出买卖信号，而不可能告诉我们市场一定会发生什么事情..."

（1）那种明天一定如何如何的预测大多不现实，用“一定”“绝对”这样的词，此人或者是骗人，或者是自欺欺人。
（2）交易总是要留有余地，错误时候能跑掉。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-14 09:50

21# ychen222

Exactly. Unless you were the god, or you were from the future, or you were the owner of the market.

作者: 棋王 时间: 2010-12-14 14:14

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2289515.html

"正统的技术分析是从不预测行情的，它属于统计学范畴，给出的只是一个概率分析，也就是说技术指标只能给我们发出买卖信号，而不可能告诉我们市场一定会发生什么事 ...
ychen222 发表于 2010-12-14 08:02

谢谢老陈!
两点总结的极是!学习了!

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-15 09:49

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

"New high without convincing volums is not a bullish signal."

有这么一说吗？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-16 08:57

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/droke121310.html

"A capacity utilization reading below 75% is considered to be deflationary and such readings are typically seen at the depths of recessions. A straight-forward reading of the Kress long-term cycle series suggests that by 2014 we will see a capacity utilization reading below that of last year's multi-decade low reading.

In the interim period between now and late 2011 when the last of the important yearly Kress cycles is scheduled to peak (the 6-year cycle), there is a good chance that the Fed's re-inflation efforts will succeed in temporarily staving off the effects of deflation in the U.S. The year ahead will present perhaps the last opportunity of the post World War II expansionary era for individuals and corporations to shore up their balance sheets, buy gold on any dips or corrections, and prepare for the hard deflationary winter ahead in 2012-2014."

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作者: ctcld 时间: 2010-12-16 09:38

why to buy gold during the deflationary winter?

thanks for sharing.

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-17 09:15

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen121610.html

"As we all know, when the market is trying to top and roll over it tends to be more of a process than a couple day event. It's this lengthy topping process which has a lot of choppy price action which sucks traders into a position much to early or shakes you out of the position before the market does what you anticipated.

On the flip side, bottoming is more of an event because it tends to happen after a strong wave of panic selling. Fear is the most powerful force in the market (other than the Fed/Manipulators.. but that's another topic). That being said, when you know what to look for in bottoms you can generally see the market starting to bottom and prepare for it.

The charts below of the US Dollar Index and the SPY clearly show the inverse relationship they have. Right now it seems everything is directly connected with the dollar… it has been like that for most if the year… I will note that its not normally this clear. Anyways, the dollar is currently trading at resistance which means there is a good chance it will turn back down. So if the dollar drops, then it should boost the SPY (equities market) and put in a bottom for stocks."

TAX Bill对美元不利吗？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-20 09:34

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2295958.html

"通胀----该国货物价格相对上涨-----出口减少、进口增加---该国外汇减少----该国汇率下跌。但是，实际情况真的是这样吗?答案是不一定。

大家可以看最近世界的实际情况，很多国家一旦出现通胀，该国汇率立马上涨。

比如：英国今年通胀上升的消息一公布，英镑汇率立即上涨。1978年第二次石油危机以后，美国通胀非常严重，美元贷款利率曾经突破20%。在随后的几年，美元指数不仅没有大幅下跌，反而上涨超过35%。直到1985年通过“广场协议”美国逼迫日本和德国汇率升值，美元才进入大幅下跌通道。
....."

有意思的逻辑和分析。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-21 09:06

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco121910.html

"As we head into the final two trading weeks of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index has completed two of the three steps typically associated with a change in trend: (1) the black trendline was broken, and (2) a higher low has been made. The third step would be to make a higher high via a daily close above 81.19.

In the chart of the dollar above, the Rate of Change indicator (ROC at bottom) has made a few higher lows and higher highs, which leans toward the bullish camp. If we fail to see a close above $81.19, the door would remain open for the bears. One possible bearish development is the fact that ROC has not cleared the zero line again."

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-22 08:51

更新19#里的图。
有人说现在跟4月的顶部很象，我反正没看出来。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-22 20:57

30# ychen222

牛叉了。虽然还很弱。估计还有几周的melt-up 然后放个礼花。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-23 09:42

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

从总统周期来看，大小布什都是选举时候倒霉，当然小布什是最后谢幕。
小股现在是好，不知是否这次结束得也早，反正最晚明年4月吧。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-27 09:14

http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordp ... uantitative-easing/

"In the last seven weeks, the S&P 500 has cleared and retested important levels in the form of the 190, 210, and 275-week moving averages (shown in blue, red, and green below). The longer the market can hold above these levels, the more meaningful it becomes from a bullish perspective. "

"The S&P 500 closed on December 10th at 1,240.40 which is very close to three potential forms of resistance shown below. Given the bigger picture, we would expect any pause or correction near 1,240 to be within the context of an ongoing bull market."

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-28 09:23

更新一下29#的帖子，美元81.19象是过不去了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-29 11:13

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

中国企业还是不错的，真的压缩房地产泡沫倒的确可能有利实业，对应就是股市繁荣。
当然中国股票可能有很多没有自由流通，所以有意外也正常。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-30 09:13

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/49688.html

谢的意思是美元基本面上应该贬值，但欧元区某些国家的债务危机使得美元暂时稳定。
若以后欧元区债务危机解除，美国新产业又没有起色，美元会有危机，会有大通涨。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-30 21:28

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/50435.html

美国企业增贷是实体经济复苏的好消息。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-12-30 23:56

37# ychen222

The rich becomes richer in this low interest environment.

作者: ychen222 时间: 2010-12-31 08:49

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones122910.html

此人认为股市要回调，而油价要涨。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-3 08:34

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/chapmand123010.html

"If there were something for US stock markets to cheer about in 2010, it was that the second year of the four-year presidential cycle is usually a positive year. That proved to be the case once again. And if the presidential cycle holds true for 2011, then 2011 may be even better, as the third year of the cycle is usually the best of the four. In fact there hasn't been a losing year in what is the pre-election year since 1939, when Franklin Roosevelt was President."

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-3 08:37

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski123110.html

"With the RSI close to 70, that is, near the overbought area, it is likely that a consolidation will be seen rather sooner than later. Verification of the previous breakout is therefore quite likely. This would be a decline to the level of the previous high followed by an additional rally."

“the level of the previous high”是122X。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-3 11:59

40# ychen222

看来什么地方的股市都是政策市。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-4 08:32

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/tradergarrett010311.html

"S&P500 Weekly:
The S&P500 weekly Gravity Center chart below has now been up for five straight weeks. In addition, the price is some distance from the trend lines. In our opinion, it is time to take money off the table on any further advance suggested by the SRA cycle indicator."

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-4 16:53

昨天应该不是最后的高潮。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-4 17:24

昨天应该不是最后的高潮。
何鸿燊发表于 2011-1-4 15:53

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2308425.html

在trader1688的桃花岛我还继续预测，借用捣乱者的图，我认为下一步要回调到2500附近，再涨向2830。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-5 08:36

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/tanashian010411.html

此文里有支持37#帖子的具体图示。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-5 08:39

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers010411.html

作者看好欧元破位，美元涨，股市大宗商品跌？

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-5 10:44

47# ychen222

金子跌破颈线，头肩顶势态明显。美元看来要连涨好几周了。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-6 08:44

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2310393.html

"在市场上呆久了的人大概听说过交易高手 Trader Vic （Victor Sperandeo），在他写的书里 Principles of Professional Speculation ，有一个叫做“四天推论”（Four Day Corollary）的短期看顶信号，大体的意思是说，在一个上升多日的成熟牛市上，如果市场指数连续上涨四天以上，次日常量逆转下跌，就有可能是趋势开始转向的信号。"

对这次拭目以待。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-6 08:47

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2309327.html

"如果你手上只有少量的錢，買個幾檔股票，賺到了停利點，就出場，看到了買點再進場，這聽起來好像很容易。可是對資金龐大的大戶，卻不是這樣啊，大戶可能手上有上億元的資金，但一來，很難在市場上，一次買到大量金額的股票；二來，想賣的時候，這麼大量的持股，哪有可能一次賣得掉？要透過其他的方式處理，這很不靈活。"

“要透過其他的方式處理”？大户到底有什么讲究呢？不清楚。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-6 09:16

50# ychen222

问一下BT吧，哈哈。

觉得是至少要买put，卖cover calls，再用ES hedge？
更高级的是pair trading？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-7 09:25

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

当前国债的弱势可能跟这个基本面有关。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-7 09:54

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2298448.html

"通常来说，华尔街是以“吃了骨头不吐渣子”而臭名昭著的，那么想一想，为什么锱铢必较的做市商愿意每天支付些利息给对手呢？答案只有一个，那就是以小额的利息作为诱饵吸引喜欢贪小便宜的人入场，反正做市商有深不见底的资金作为后盾，等时机来临时，再把从事“套利交易”的人一网打尽，毕竟“出来混，总要还的”。

在现实生活中，有类似的免费午餐吗？有的，去乘坐开往赌场的“发财大巴士”，你会领到一笔白送给你的小额赌资。至于回程时结局如何，不用猜也能知道。"

"美元指数就像是一个晴雨表，它的上升就意味着市场风险的增加和各种风险资产遭受了卖出的压力。"

发现murmur.on.hudson写的东西有水平。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-10 08:48

http://www.johnmauldin.com/

"Forecast 2011: Better than Muddle Through
By John Mauldin | January 8, 2011"

"While on the stock market, let me revisit a theme from a few weeks ago. There are all sorts of indicators from any number of services that I follow that are telling us about the possibility of a short-term sell-off. But given that the Fed and other major central banks are maintaining an easy stance, the medium-term outlook following a drop should be a return to a bullish trend."

John Mauldin 表现出乐观了。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-11 09:24

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/51628.html

象谢国忠这样惟恐天下不乱的人说“年初满怀希望，年中滑入恐慌”“对股票的总体态度不消极”，近期股市整体牛势应该无虞。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-11 11:12

55# ychen222

哈哈。他整个人成了酸葡萄。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-12 10:10

本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-1-12 09:22 编辑

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2309725.html

比灵通看空股市大盘而买入TLT，我以前401K调度资金也用过此法。
可惜TLT最近疲软（5日和昨天TLT都是大跌，走法比股票还暴力），他上车早了。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-12 14:49

57# ychen222

JSL才是砖家里手呢。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-14 08:49

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/droke011311.html

经济界人士看好今年股市，尤其中国股市。
美欧是采取刺激政策，可是中国当前金融紧缩，中国股市未必强过美欧。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-14 10:56

59# ychen222

谨慎乐观的估计。下面要看金融地产类了。大科技股也还有些上升空间。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-18 09:05

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan011511.html

Warren Bevan认为SP500在1300大概要回调，最终1420会到达。
上周五SP500收在1293。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-19 08:58

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2326590.html
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2326594.html

可见大机构大资金动作难度大。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-20 08:37

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID2287993

以前听捣乱者说NASDAQ的13天线重要，最近才开始注意，发现最近几次的确是关键位置。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-21 09:48

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor011811.html

municipal and state bond触发下一轮危机？不过其直接影响可能是使FED保持低利率，未必对股市不好。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-1-21 12:09

64# ychen222

Muni ETF的图形难看，但美国市政还有转圜空间。唯一的就是加税，裁员会降低经济复苏的速度，失业率会长期低迷。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-1-23 15:37

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco011411.html

“In the cases studied, the two occurrences in 2007 are probably the least similar to the present day in terms of other factors, such as interest rate and market cycles. The cases in 2003 and 2009 are also not that similar to the present day since they occurred in the first year of new bull markets. The 2004 case, while far from a good match, aligns best with current circumstances. In 2004 after the Investors Intelligence Advisory Sentiment Bull/Bear Ratio hit 3.00, stocks basically tread water for three months, then experienced a decent pullback. From a risk-reward perspective, stocks were barely higher six months later.”

2004年初，NASDAQ从周图的BB（20，2）上轨回调到下轨，月图里从BB（20，2）上轨回调到MA（20）。
若现在跟2004走法一样，NASDAQ将会跌到周图BB（20，2）下轨2260，月图MA（20）的2255。

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