[闲谈] 钱放哪呢？

GreatWallchn

bond跌， 能源跌， 黄金白银跌， 美国人很少keep现金， 你说钱放哪呢？

GreatWallchn

美国现在1.3+亿房子， 人口3亿，每年新增几个M新房， 很快就1.5亿, 如果假设夫妻孩子住在一起， 个别光棍除外， 你说要那么多房子做啥呢？

GreatWallchn

去年real estate fund表现太好了， 比如CRARX, 28%利， 现在看来不好， 好像real estate跟treasury 关联很强呀

GreatWallchn

好像明白了：10-30yr Treasury YIELD increase, so fixed rate of 15/30yr Mortgage, which will increase fixed cost of Real Estate, reduce the margin of real estate investment, housing is becoming less attractive. Over last year, 10YR Treasury PRICE drop from 2.8 to 1.68 on 02/01, which in turn cause real estate hike over last year. and since 02/01, Treasury price increases, so real estate will drop instead. Is that right?

GreatWallchn

看来需要专家指导一下了， WSJBOY 做TLT, 解释一下吧。

GreatWallchn

坦白讲， 这个关联我的确不懂， 所以放在这请大家明白的指导一下。