snowrider

那雪骑觉得国债和股市的关系呢？ 他们之间的反向关联呢？

王嫫嫫 - 謝謝討論  這個回到以前聊過關於相關性的話題  簡單一個回答就是不要關心不同市場之間的任何互動

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/red ... 400&pid=5178589

在過去N年中  偶看過許多一段時間是T-Bond漲股市漲  也看過許多一段時間是T-Bond漲股市跌  舉例說明:

T-Bond漲股市漲 - 債券拍賣結果特好  市場期待利率走低  雙雙連袂上漲
T-Bond漲股市跌 - 經濟衰退股市大熊市  錢進債市  負相關

結論 - 這個追根究底是要了解什麼是背後的因素 (太累了!)  最好就是不要管它們的關聯

snowrider

04/28/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

Quote from Wide Tailz:

That looks very logical.  Chop like this makes me so angry some days!

Perhaps I can see a hypnotist to get me to stop trading during corrective waves.  They are unpredictable.

LOL ... cheer up man ... I have been losing money in this corrective wave.  A trend will eventually come back.

snowrider

Quote from ammo:

post bank intervention it's much easier to manipulate ,no bear stearns to pick off the whales,eom and expo seem to always work upward,snow,thanks for putting this out there

ammo - You are welcome, and thanks for reading and commenting.

snowrider

i hope you did take the easy long on EU 27 april at 1.3178 it was the obvious one for 75 pips

TravoltaImp - Actually, I missed out that long because of last Friday's choppy market move.

snowrider

你很确定sp下一步要大跌啊

fatbrick - 偶不太確定!

... 不过也是, 再上的话, 新高的可能性很大. 看DOW现在样子, 不拔高不甘心啊.

Venetian - 偶只是瞎猜的  如果市場向上破高點 偶可能會先避避風頭 再找機會放空

昨天gdp调整都没有撼动MM的牛心，没招了

常打盹 - 也許吧!  不管怎樣  偶還是偏熊些

snowrider

05/01/2012

Comments are welcome!

So ... possiblly an ending diagonal triangle is forming.

snowrider

05/05/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

目前的低點達到等幅跌幅目標  但波圖的紫線已無效  現在走灰線  整個波的算法回歸 04/28/2012 的算法

snowrider

It's good that SP futures pulls up a lot before the market opens.  We will need to watch to see if the cash index would fall below the starting point of last up waves - the low of 04/23/2012 in order to decide which count is valid.

If 04/23/2012's low is breached, the wave count of 04/28/2012's post becomes valid.  Otherwise, last weekend's count is valid.

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

[B]Just so I understand this correctly, as this is very interesting regarding the wave count, if the futures (/ES) breached but SPX did not, which takes precedence in accurately counting the waves? [/B]

ScalperJoe - Very good point!  That is a very good question indeed!  We trade wave, which is following some natual law, so we want to trade something that has good liquidity and good volume.  The more people participate the market, the more accurate we can get from counting the wave.  It is a dilemma whether we should or should not count the wave of after hour's futures market.  The after hour's trading is much easier to be manipulated.  What I do is to have a 2-way consideration: I count both SPX and futures index.  Today's market is an example that the after hour trading penetrated 04/23's low, but in the regular hour the market tried many time without being able to breach that key support.  Now I guess that we have two possible counts:
1. ABC has completed the wave [IV], so the market is heading north for [V].
2. Or the market is heading down in a massive wave-III collapse.

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

Ok, so if the March low of 1,340 holds then I agree with scenario 1 that the market would rally as a wave [V] for a retest of the highs.

If it doesn't, then one target for scenario 2 downtrend is the next fib level of the bigger 5 wave pattern, which happens to correspond very closely with the Wave 1 top of around 1,293.

Given that the 100day moving average and two large daily tails offer support on the SPX chart, it seems more likely that your scenario 1 will prevail.  These corrective wave patterns are quite tricky, and definitely have more headfakes than the clearer Wave 3 pattern.

ScalperJoe - Good point!  Yes, the 1340 is the wave-4 (the lower degree wave) where a corrective wave would stop.  Thanks for summerizing those two scenarios.  Today the market gaps up, we will need to see if the gap can hold or not.  If the gap holds and market goes higher, then probably the wave-[V] is underway.  If the market fails to move up, we need to be careful that it could be forming a wave-2 (corrective wave) in the scenario #2.

(More posts and charts on my blog.)

snowrider

05/12/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

05/20/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

today u said wave3-4 have finished.   
how do you judge wave3-4 finish, by 30min macd crossing down?
could it be possible to have ABC,  i.e. 1st leg SPX 1295 to 1328, then down to 1315,  then tomorrow 2nd leg up to ~1340?  thanks!
hq1888 发表于 2012-5-22 22:12

hq1888 - Thanks for commenting.  No, I don't use any indicator.  Since the market has followed my purple line wave count the past two week (accurately to even each reversal day), I would rather believe that the market will continue following my purple line wave count until it says otherwise.  Yes, it could be the ABC scenario if today's day high is penetrated.  It could be anything.  Since the current preferred count works pretty well, I would like to take your idea as an alternative count.