snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

我的问题是：从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪常态是驱动浪型态，即5浪型态，这是一个重要条件。所以后面会跟出反弹浪D和驱动浪C。
而接下来的调整浪[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]才会是A-B-C型态。
...

You know that an abc could be 335 or 535.  "从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪" dose not need to be a "驱动浪型态，即5浪型态" to be a "条件" of forming a segment of [[D]].[C].E.

...
从第一张图的[[E]].[A].A.到[[E]].[A].C.的形态上看，特别是A与C之间角度的过分差异，是驱动浪的1-2-3（后面还有-4-5）型态。

I agree with that.  I have seen some EW technicians categorize that as I-II-III instead of A-B-C.  The reason that I tentatively label them as A-B-C is based on the detail wave movement inside each segment.  It did not seem to me some 12345 inside A.  Please see attachments:

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

... 为什么[[[IV]]].[[E]]是A-B-C型态，是因为[[[IV]]]这个复杂浪段通常以反弹浪A-B-C作结尾的吗？...

Normally, an E wave is a simple wave segment to make a quick final kickout small fishes and then breakout the triangle.  However, in our case, we are watch a multi-year (more than a decade) super big formation.  IMHO, a complex type is more possible.  If we want it to be a simple type, then it will be a real crash like 1987.

snowrider

08/18/2011 SP Intraday

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snowrider

08/20/2011

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snowrider

~~~ Trade with Elliott Wave Principle ~~~

Trading with EW needs to be flexible, and the wave count needs to be adjusted in accordance with the actual market behavior.  See the following two charts:



On 08/06/2011, I was guessing that gold's bull run was about ending (because it has reached one of my long term targets ($1690, why that?  See the backup at the end).





On Monday 08/08/2011, it gapped up and broke 08/04/'s high.  At that moment, an extension was forming, and the wave needed to be recounted.

The following chart is the wave count as of 08/13/2011.  The market closed at $1740 on Friday (08/12/2011).  The preferred count was seeing it heading to $1800 and then $1850.





The market movement in last week showed a very strong upside momentum.  All short term wave targets got fulfilled with minimal effort.  The wave-5 showed 5 well-defined waves in its intraday chart.  We don't know if there is more extension here again.  If so, the next target would be $1960.


How to trade?
1. It's better not to short against the explosive wave-5 because:
1.1 We don't know whether it will have any extension or not.
1.2 There is no meaningful point that a stop order can be placed to protect your position.
2. It's better to try after we have seen a well-defined downside impulsive movement.  Then you know to short when it rebounds, and you know where you can stand against.

Backups:
1. Before the bull took off:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=46960
2. When the bull just started:  http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=49654
3. Why $1690?

snowrider

08/25/2011 SP Intraday

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snowrider

thank
bullish eyes
aimei 发表于 2011-8-25 22:23

Yes!  Smart!

snowrider

08/27/2011

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snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

USD/JPY对大盘有何指导意义？

You know that all those four (SP, GC, EUR, JPY) are tradable.  I really don't relate them each other.  I treat them one by one.  It really does not matter if SP goes up or down while EUR goes up or down.  Keep in mind that anything can happen.

我想你短期看牛，中期看熊，，，，到明年变成大牛...

If you are talking about SP, for now, I actually see this way:
短期看牛 (to 1260)，中期看牛 (to finish wave-[E] by taking out 1370)，到明年变成大熊 (super bearish with multiple years downtrend)

That is just my view as of now.  Things change.  If the wave structure changes, I'll change my view.

snowrider

09/02/2011

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偶渡假至下週四
若有討論
或許晚上回覆

snowrider

09/10/2011

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snowrider

09/13/2011 SP Intraday

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snowrider

09/14/2011 EUR Intraday

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snowrider

09/17/2011

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snowrider

09/21/2011  SP Intraday

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