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[讨论] 美国债破14兆 不修法恐破产

【联合报╱编译张佑生/综合报导】
       
2011.01.05 02:03 am


2010年最后一天,美国国债首度突破14兆美元大关。按照日增40亿美元的速率推算,100天后将到达法定举债上限。共和党议员已扬言要和欧巴马政府「大摊牌」,绝不轻易调高举债上限。若不及时修法,美国将创下开国以来首度倒债的纪录。

根据美国财政部网站3日公告,截至去年底,国债总额为14兆252亿1521万8708元5角2分(美元),距离去年6月1日突破13兆关卡,才7个月。

去年2月,国会通过、总统欧巴马签字生效的举债上限为14兆2940亿美元。假如到了3月下旬,国会仍无动作,全球金融市场就该紧张了。

共和党在新选出来的众议院过半数,部分党籍议员表示,无论如何绝不让举债上限调高。部分议员则采有条件同意:除非欧巴马政府大幅削减开支,包括对社会安全和医疗照顾的补助,否则将封杀提高举债上限的修法提案。参议员迪明特甚至以「大摊牌」(big showdown)形容共和党紧守举债上限的决心。

举债上限如果无法调高,财政部和白宫会采取缓兵之计,财政部可先挪用部分款项,白宫可以关闭某些机关,暂时停发社会安全与医疗照护款项节省开支。

但这样做拖不了太久,若共和党议员决议杯葛,美国将因国防开支和债务利息,而向购买美国国债的外国政府、银行及个人说「我们没钱还债」。最糟的是,金融市场不会等到美国真的倒帐的这一天,市场会提早出现强烈反应,希腊的状况就是前例。

白宫经济顾问委员会主席库斯比向共和党阵营喊话,表示这不是逞匹夫之勇的把戏:「拒绝提高上限将导致美国发生债务违约,这在美国史上是前所未有的事,将比2008年金融风暴更严重。」

不过,茶党等共和党激进派最主要目标就是不让美国债务继续膨胀,所以没有人能预料他们会坚持到何种程度。

保守派媒体还翻出2006年欧巴马担任参议员时的谈话:「提高举债上限是领导人失败的象征,也是美国政府无力自行应付开销,必须仰仗外国支持我们政府鲁莽财务政策的象征。」欧巴马将被迫把这话吞回去,向国会低头。

【2011/01/05 联合报】 @ http://gb.udn.com/gb/udn.com/
一个腐烂的躯体硬挺着...
江南有丹桔,经冬犹绿林。 岂伊地气暖,自有岁寒心。 可以荐佳客,奈何阻重深。 运命唯所遇,循环不可寻。 徒言树桃李,此木岂无阴。
3# not4weak


Geithner says U.S. could hit debt limit by March 31

Thursday January 6, 2011, 11:14 am
By David Lawder and Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States may hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow by March 31 and faces serious consequences unless Congress acts by then to raise it, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.

"Even a short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades," Geithner said in a letter to U.S. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid that was issued by Treasury.

Geithner said it was hard to pin down exactly when the current $14.3 trillion ceiling on the debt limit would be pierced but urged Congress to act before the end of the first quarter to avoid the risk of pushing the United States into default.

At a briefing later, a U.S. Treasury official urged lawmakers preparing for a new budget, and a likely fractious debate over spending, not to mix up the debt-limit issue with calls for greater restraint in government spending.

CONFIDENT CONGRESS TO ACT

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed confidence that Congress will raise the debt limit if only because not doing so would have such a damaging impact.

"Our view is this needs to get done, it will get done," the official said.

Exactly when the existing debt ceiling, which was approved only last February, will be pierced is not certain, but Treasury said it was looming.

"The Treasury department now estimates that the debt limit will be reached as early as March 31, 2011, and most likely between that date and May 16, 2011," Geithner wrote.

He said Treasury could engage in extraordinary measures, such as suspending sales of state and local government securities and thus delay the date by which the debt limit is reached "by several weeks" but preferred not to do so.

"Once these steps have been taken, no remaining legal and prudent measures would be available to create additional headroom under the debt limit, and the United States would begin to default on its obligations," Geithner said.

If that happened, Geithner said, there would be consequences for the U.S. economy "potentially much more harmful than the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009."

The U.S. Treasury official said the department expected Congress to "do the responsible thing" and to lift the debt limit so that the United States can keep borrowing to fund its daily operating needs.

(Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
4# 何鸿燊

这就是刚才那个sell-off的借口。
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