The number of U.S. oil rigs out drilling new wells fell for the 13th straight week as the U.S. sinks deeper in a glut of excess oil.
Drillers idled 64 oil rigs (excluding gas rigs), dropping the number to 922, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. The rig count is down 43 percent since October, an unprecedented retreat. The median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of 20 #RigCountGuesses on Twitter was for a decline of 20 rigs.
Every week since 1944, oilfield-services company Baker Hughes has released a survey of rigs out drilling for oil. But it wasn't until oil prices dropped by more than half that "rig counts" became a popular metric for oil watchers. Rigs are used to explore for new deposits and to drill new wells, but fewer rigs don't always mean less production. The U.S. is currently pumping oil faster than at any time since 1972.
(Bloomberg) -- There’s one place in the world where oil is still $95 a barrel.
On paper.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires drillers to calculate the value of their oil reserves every year using average prices from the first trading days in each of the previous 12 months. Because oil didn’t start its freefall to about $45 till after the OPEC meeting in late November, companies in their latest regulatory filings used $95 a barrel to figure out how much oil they could profitably produce and what it’s worth. Of the 12 days that went into the fourth-quarter average, crude was above $90 a barrel on 10 of them.
So Continental Resources Inc., led by billionaire Harold Hamm, reported last month that the present value of its oil and gas operations increased 13 percent last year to $22.8 billion. For Devon Energy Corp., a pioneer of hydraulic fracturing, it jumped 31 percent to $27.9 billion.
This year tells a different story. The average price on the first trading days of January, February and March was $51.28 a barrel. That means a lot of pain -- and writedowns -- are in store when drillers’ first-quarter numbers are announced in April and May.
“It has postponed the reckoning,” said Julie Hilt Hannink, head of energy research at New York-based CFRA, an accounting adviser.
Cash Flow
Companies use the first-trading-day-of-every-month calculation to estimate future cash flow and to tally how much crude can be profitably pumped out of the ground. The SEC introduced the formula in 2009 as part of wider changes in how the regulator required drillers to report reserves. Prior to the shift, the value of the reserves was measured based on the oil price on the last day of the year, which also caused distortions.
There are no current plans to revisit or modify SEC reporting rules, Erin Stattel, an SEC spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. She declined to comment further.
Most shale drillers are reporting increases in what’s known as proved reserves. The SEC requires oil producers to submit an annual tally, along with an estimate of the present value of the future cash flow from those properties. The estimates are limited to what the firm is reasonably certain it can extract from existing wells and prospects scheduled to be drilled within five years. The reports are based on factors such as geology, engineering, historical production -- and price. To count as proved, the resources must be economic to develop given existing market conditions.
“What the SEC requires isn’t thorough enough to get to the numbers investors really want,” said Mike Kelly, an analyst with Global Hunter Securities in Houston. “What is the true cost of producing a barrel of oil? And what is the real value of the assets?”
A similar pricing formula helps determine whether some companies need to write off their oil and gas properties.
发表于 2015-3-8 15:05
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