[技术分析] 以静制动 (系列贴)

ychen222

散户初入市总是首先关注股价的涨跌，因为这决定亏赚。随着经验增加以后就知道涨跌/亏赚就象数字01一样过于简单，炒股面临的问题远比基本的01复杂，还得加上时间因素，比如说除了涨跌外，股价还可以不动；或虽然动但幅度很小；或者大动作前有反向小幅欺骗。我们期待的理想情况实际上是既看对了股价变化方向又出现股价迅速大幅的变化，否则入市操作收益未必理想。

以上提到的“股价迅速大幅变化”就是本系列贴所关注的“动”，“股价还可以不动；或虽然动但幅度很小”就是“静”。作为小散户，资金有限，时间信息有限，但也有进出方便的有利条件。我们需要的是准确把握股价的变动方向，同时又能把握足够的大幅迅速变化（即“动”）。股价的“动静”直接影响着我们炒股的损益。

“动”是我们炒股获利所需要的，现在的问题是如何预测“动”呢？

ychen222

近期，SPX从1696跌下来，似乎于1660做中线，中线上下界为1667/1653，目标是1625。
由于1400-〉1900的大势需要SPX在1650附近多盘，所以有可能跌向1625并不痛快，类似银子四月跌入27-20稀薄交易区以后持续盘于23-24，让牛熊两难。

Of course, it's also possible that SPX would slump quickly with 3 down pattern. (1) 1696->1625 (2) bounce back to 1655, then 1655->1585 (3) bounce back to 1620, then 1620->1550.

ychen222

8月初的突破1700被证明是假突破，这样一来，142#里说的5678四个月限在1600-1700（各有上下两个假突破）盘整有戏，于是未来先跌到1400+，然后1900就是大方向。
关于我的中长期走势看法，请重读142#，153#的看法错误。

Trinity

Have a wonderful time!

ychen222

8月大MM度假没回来，所以破1690大概要等9月以后，8月大盘在1700以上一直做顶。
9月一旦破1690，一波和二波至200天线会很快。而三波需等到10月份。

我以后2周出国度假，没有可靠的上网机会，所以等8/17-18周末再发言啦。

ychen222

三波调整/3-push-down是猜想，但我觉得需要做好准备，等发生时候真的能吃到。

当前的三波调整/3-push-down图示如下，第一波可能是1745至1625（中位1685， 长120点），反弹回1680，然后第二波是1680至1560（到那时候的200天线），第二波到第三波大盘休息时间会长一些（盘于200天线上），第三波大概是1610至1460。

ychen222

上周末说的8月限于1600-1700又破产了，不过这样留下1650-1680的稀薄区，未来一旦突破1680-1696，跌倒1650就是一两天的事。
1700-1730当然也是肉，但折腾上去时间上不知要多少天，而1680-1650也许一天就够，所以更留心1680-1650对我来说很自然，虽然不是眼下的事，但要做准备。

近期我看好SPX去1730附近，然后回调，再上到1745。一个主要看点是回调，若将来很熊的话，希望此回调比较浅并呈现缓下急上（去1745）的右V特征，底不足总波段的1/3（比如说1650-1730=80，80/3=27，1730-27=1703，而回调不到1703）。若回调比较深，破1700，呈现急下缓上的左V特征，反而将来牛的可能性变大。

stockoperator

H_T

very nice writeup,  made sure to read the entire 10 pages

ericc980

Thanks.

dxzhu

Thanks LaoDa's new update

ychen222

请教：根据大师你对QE和大盘指数的预测，美国的房市会怎么走呢？
未来还会有DIP 可以买吗？
ericc980 发表于 2013-7-28 11:03

"下一任FED主席停QE" + "SPX to 950" + "10y notes under 120" = real-estate nightmare.
However, this will be a long lasting down turn, which will last up to 5 years. The real-estate bottom might happen in 2015-2016 period or later. Like SPX 950 > 2009's 677, this bottom should be higher than 08/09 and 2011 bottoms. For ITB, the bottom might be around 13-15.
BTW, because of new QE from Ben Bernanke's FED late this year, ITB might go up to 30+ in spring 2014 (when SPX reaches 1900).

ychen222

During SPX跌到1420/国会国债上限之争,  国债 and Gold should have down pressure.  国债 and Gold could have bottom in September/October, then they would rally following the stocks.  

Although SPX would make new high 1900 in 2014, I doubt  国债 and Gold would be able to make new high.   下一任FED主席停QE would beat down stocks, 国债 and Gold all together.

See the charts, I guess 10y notes/Gold would bottom about 120/1000 during September/October. In 2014 spring rally, I am afraid that they could not to break 130/1600 at all. In near term, 10y notes and Gold do have a little up room till 129/1380.

ericc980

请教：根据大师你对QE和大盘指数的预测，美国的房市会怎么走呢？
未来还会有DIP 可以买吗？

ychen222

(I can use my desktop computer at home to input Chinese. But my current company notebook only allows me to input English. So now I have to to switch to English input...)

Last Friday, we saw that the major stock indexes need to synchronize before a major movement. (In Friday's case, SPX needed a new low in order for it to rally to 1700.)  

SPX down to 1420-1400 is a major movement. in http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-242155-1-2.html I said RUT's 1560 was ready to 850 (middle point 955) .
Now let us see NDX and INDU.

NDX's 3091 is ready (actually too much) to 1650. No need for new high.
However, INDU's 15600 does not seem to be enough, if 14500 is the middle point, and 13200 is the target. It's good for INDU to have new high around 15800.
So if playing this rally in next a few days, INDU might be a better candidate.