ychen222

今天NDX/RUT可能算调整到位了，SPX差点。

我恢复了多头仓（就算后2天再跌一点也不管了），目标SPX/RUT 1915/1215。

ychen222

预期的大中位回测还是来了。

牛牛不用担心， 测完后SPX/RUT小目标1915/1215,  大目标1960/1250不变。

ychen222

预期的大中位回测还是来了。

牛牛不用担心， 测完后SPX/RUT小目标1915/1215,  大目标1960/1250不变。
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-4 14:26

I noticed that SPX MA50(1838) and MA200(1755) are important positions.
"牛牛不用担心" only if MA50 could hold.
If MA50 could not hold, MA200 not far away.

ychen222

So matured channel (1840-1880), either 1960 or 1760.  But I don't know which one yet.

ychen222

Cut major part last Friday, cut rest of longs on Monday.
I do not have any long/short at this moment.

ychen222

I still think SPX/RUT tops would be at least 1950/1230, however, MA200 would be tested firstly.
Current rebound position is very useful to calculate the top and bottom.

ychen222

Since 1860 is so important, I guess that 1860(or 187x) would be revisited before breaking out 1890.
ychen222 发表于 2014-4-2 09:28

I read this morning's 1858 as the back test 1860 before breaking down 1840.

Last time bulls failed in the back test. Now let's see bears' fortune.

ychen222

Bulls’ victory implies SPX 1960.  I loaded up some longs with stop at 1858.

ychen222

Cut the longs.
Watching....

ychen222

TLT is on its way to 112.x.
So stock MA200 seems to be inevitable.

ychen222

SPX/RUT might bottom at 1775/1065, then rally to 1925/1215.

ychen222

Laoda still thinks sma200 first?
learner 发表于 2014-4-15 00:55

我是根据这2天SPX/RUT的走法猜测1775/1065的。
SPX：上下界1835/1815，中位1825，所以1815-40=1775。
RUT：上下界1125/1105，中位1815，所以1105-40=1665。

如果今天能决定性地突破SPX/RUT 1835/1125，以上猜测不成立。（当然如果想要跌得比1775更低，反而需要把台子搭得再高一点，可见涨上去也不一定是好事。）

至于SPX/RUT顶一定在1940/1230以上，是从周图里算出来的，现在的1897/1212一定不够。

ychen222

SPX上下界1843/1815 => 1815-28*2=1759.

ychen222

INDU和SPX象是突破的样子，不知道近期底到没到，还会不会跌。
我自己认为3成机会底已过，7成机会没跌够。
中长期来说股市肯定出新高的。

ychen222

Now I think 9成机会底已过.
Next will be 新高.