秋之皓月

俺基本全部从指数退出了，只余20%的金子，准备吃几个月的利息了，至少到今年5月，都会是现金为王的日子。

秋之皓月

油价的暴跌可能会破产一大批公司，造成市场的恐慌，从而造成VIX的狂飚，也许会看到30+，40+的ViX

秋之皓月

在市场大幅动荡的时候，赔钱总比赚钱容易，而抱着现金不赔钱其实很容易做到，一段时间不做股票不会死的，在别人赔钱的时候，俺睡觉，享受生活去

贪婪是原罪

秋之皓月

油价在这么短期的暴跌会让期货市场很多玩家暴仓的，真实的情况需要一段时间才能反映出来，到时候就有好戏看了，好似次货前的情况。

一旦图上出现深深的伤痕，需要很长的时间才能愈合。

抄底还远远太早

秋之皓月

炒股要会跑得快

秋之皓月

后面几周会不会冒出来一个象Enron 一样的来呢？

秋之皓月

很弱的走势，明天继续下行，VIX在孕育一根大阳捧，准备一柱擎天

秋之皓月

要崩！货币巿场，材料市场，能源市场，山雨欲来风满楼

秋之皓月

有第一个暴仓的了：

FXCM Inc., a New York-based company that offers foreign exchange trading services over the Internet, said clients suffered significant losses when the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon the franc’s cap against the euro roiled global markets. Global Brokers NZ Ltd. said the impact on its business is forcing it to shut down.

“Due to unprecedented volatility in EUR/CHF pair after the Swiss National Bank announcement this morning, clients experienced significant losses, FXCM said in a statement dated Jan. 15. That ‘‘generated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately $225 million.’’

秋之皓月

这被称作核弹

Thomas Jordan, invariably calm and mild-mannered, delivered the monetary policy equivalent of a nuclear bomb.

The Swiss National Bank (SNBN ▼ -1.11% 1,067.00), which he leads, stunned markets around the world yesterday by getting rid of its three-year-old cap of 1.20 per euro on the franc in what was a major policy reversal for the typically staid institution.

“There was a big silence, and then someone said ‘boom,’” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank SA in Gland, Switzerland, said of the atmosphere in her office when the announcement hit. “The reaction, it was panic.”

秋之皓月

会有一堆暴仓的

秋之皓月

好像有一个最大的hedge fund外婆了

秋之皓月

Marko Dimitrijevic, the hedge fund manager who survived at least five emerging market debt crises, is closing his largest hedge fund after losing virtually all its money this week when the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly let the franc trade freely against the euro, according to a person familiar with the firm.

Everest Capital’s Global Fund had about $830 million in assets as of the end of December, according to a client report. The Miami-based firm, which specializes in emerging markets, still manages seven funds with about $2.2 billion in assets. The global fund, the firm’s oldest, was betting the Swiss franc would decline, said the person, who asked not to be named because the information is private.

秋之皓月

黑洞慢慢浮现：

Bank Losses From Swiss Currency Surprise Seen Mounting
By Elena Logutenkova - Jan 18, 2015, 4:00:00 PM

The $400 million of cumulative losses that Citigroup Inc. (C ▲ 0.80% 47.61), Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc (BARC ▼ -1.58% 224.35) are said to have suffered from the Swiss central bank’s decision to end the cap on the franc may be followed by others in coming days.

“The losses will be in the billions -- they are still being tallied,” said Mark T. Williams, an executive-in-residence at Boston University specializing in risk management. “They will range from large banks, brokers, hedge funds, mutual funds to currency speculators. There will be ripple effects throughout the financial system.”

Citigroup, the world’s biggest currencies dealer, lost more than $150 million at its trading desks, a person with knowledge of the matter said last week. Deutsche Bank lost $150 million and Barclays less than $100 million, people familiar with the events said, after the Swiss National Bank scrapped a three-year-old policy of capping its currency against the euro and the franc soared as much as 41 percent that day versus the euro. Spokesmen for the three banks declined to comment.

Marko Dimitrijevic, the hedge fund manager who survived at least five emerging-market debt crises, is closing his largest hedge fund, which had about $830 million in assets at the end of the year, after losing virtually all its money on the SNB’s decision, a person familiar with the firm said last week.

FXCM Inc., the largest U.S. retail foreign-exchange broker, got a $300 million cash infusion from Leucadia National Corp. after warning that client losses threatened its compliance with capital rules. FXCM, which handled $1.4 trillion of trades for individuals last quarter, said it was owed $225 million by customers.

Popular Trade

Shorting the franc was a popular trade and most firms would leverage their positions some 20 times or more, said Williams, who consults for hedge funds. With such leverage a 5 percent move against the position wipes out all the value, yet the trades were seen as relatively low-risk by models used by financial institutions because volatility of the franc was reduced by the SNB’s cap, he said.

Citigroup had reported an average total trading value-at-risk, a measure of how much the company could lose in trading in one day, of $105 million in the third quarter, of which $32 million was attributed to foreign-exchange risks. Deutsche Bank (DBK ▲ 0.67% 24.75)’s so-called stressed value-at-risk, which measures possible daily losses in market turmoil, averaged 109 million euros ($126 million) in the first nine months, with 27 million euros related to foreign-exchange risks.

秋之皓月

道指周线是三乌鸦之后的一个insider 小阳线，下面几周继续向下突破。