snowrider

where does your count put the highs in on the sp? i reckon we are going to 1330 ish before trading down into the summer making a decent bounce into end of year

Rothschild - I would guess that SP spot index 1320 area could be where the reversal starts.  We need to pay attention if SP ever moves to that area to see if there is any sign of exhaustion.

seagal

海娃 - 偶不trade TLT所以偶不知如何猜TLT 但偶知道 偶沒說過SP會在2個月內從1300急殺到950 大概是你看 ...
snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 21:24

你那红线标的，从1300跌到950，我想知道你怎么想的？你标在12到13之间的。。。
不是明摆着1个月内跌到950吗？咋又没说2個月內從1300急殺到950？莫非你坐标的横轴不代表任何意义？要是那样，10年到950和1个月到950，不就没区别了吗？

棋王

师弟一看要跌的帖总是显得很着急。。。。。。。

snowrider

你那红线标的，从1300跌到950，我想知道你怎么想的？你标在12到13之间的。。。
不是明摆着1个月内 ...
seagal 发表于 2012-1-1 23:59

海娃你真該配副眼鏡好好看清楚 偶寫著 Monthly Chart 意思就是月線圖 12是2012 13是2013
不要太緊張!  

snowrider

师弟一看要跌的帖总是显得很着急。。。。。。。
棋王 发表于 2012-1-2 00:36

   
海娃好像很緊張

snowrider

01/08/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

20120109 DJIA Worst Scenario

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

Long term EW count question.

Could 1987 be a end of wave 1, (approx) 2000 end of wave 3,
2008 end of wave 5 ?

If so, then could 2009 bottom be wave A , 2011 top end of a 'B' ?
and where would a projected wave C end ?  

Thanks !

jas_in_hbca - It could be.  As I believe and mention many times that anything is possible.
With that scenario, we are going to enter a long term bear market soon.
That bear market could have 2.5 more years to go, and it's final destination of the bear movement will be after falling below 2009's low.

snowrider

20120109 DJIA Worst Scenario
这和你上面的SP的图不大一样呢？

thirdwheel - 這當然不一樣 這張是道瓊指數幾十年的對數座標 有朋友問是否可以如何如何算波 偶回答他可以 並標示出那種算法的可能走法 當然短期日線走法仍然照偶們原來的算法在運行 所以一切是 under control

snowrider

01/14/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

01/21/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

i agree with your projections on gold, but im not sure your wavecounts match mine. i like to keep it simple, so i only use waves 1-5 and then abc.
...

nim1984- Thanks for commenting and sharing your thought.  Yes, I like your idea of keeping it simple.  That is also one of the reasons that I don't agree RP's wave counts most of the time.

...
i think wave 5 of wave A was over at 1522, assuming 1920 was end of wave 3. right now we're in wave B which could go as high as 1760 area. then wave c will break to new lows...maybe mid 1300's?

then we'll have the last wave 5 which will take out the high of 1920, but dont have a projection for it.

note: i'm not an elliott wave junkie. i did this analysis in 10mins looking at monthly chart, just to get a feel for where we are right now in the cycle.

Your scenario is quite possible.  In that case, this big ABC correction is in the same degee as that of 2008 one.  For now, no matter whether we are in a big ABCDE or a big ABC, the medium long term's momentum is heading up.

dvork

偶是很鬱悶
沒好雪可滑
去太浩湖的機票又不能退(要重罰)
只有祈禱盼望暴風雪在二月前能來
snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 17:34

暴风雪果然来了，六尺深的雪

snowrider

暴风雪果然来了，六尺深的雪
dvork 发表于 2012-1-26 00:53

We will be there from 02/06 to 02/10.  Do you want to join us to ski a day or two?

snowrider

01/28/2012

Comments are welcome!

棋王

回调是个买.俺也瞎画了几张,结论和你一样.