snowrider

01/14/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

01/21/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

i agree with your projections on gold, but im not sure your wavecounts match mine. i like to keep it simple, so i only use waves 1-5 and then abc.
...

nim1984- Thanks for commenting and sharing your thought.  Yes, I like your idea of keeping it simple.  That is also one of the reasons that I don't agree RP's wave counts most of the time.

...
i think wave 5 of wave A was over at 1522, assuming 1920 was end of wave 3. right now we're in wave B which could go as high as 1760 area. then wave c will break to new lows...maybe mid 1300's?

then we'll have the last wave 5 which will take out the high of 1920, but dont have a projection for it.

note: i'm not an elliott wave junkie. i did this analysis in 10mins looking at monthly chart, just to get a feel for where we are right now in the cycle.

Your scenario is quite possible.  In that case, this big ABC correction is in the same degee as that of 2008 one.  For now, no matter whether we are in a big ABCDE or a big ABC, the medium long term's momentum is heading up.

snowrider

暴风雪果然来了，六尺深的雪
dvork 发表于 2012-1-26 00:53

We will be there from 02/06 to 02/10.  Do you want to join us to ski a day or two?

snowrider

01/28/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

for gold, you're saying that the c wave might have ended. you have wave a from 1522-1662, b wave from 1662-1625, and c wave from 1625-1738.

however your c wave is only 113 pts long, compared to wave a's length of 140.

c waves are often longer than a waves, going upto 1.618 times wave a, so why do you think c wave will be truncated this time?

nim1984 - Good point!  We don't know if wave-c has finished yet.  That was just my guess because GCG12 is rolling over to GCJ12 now.  Sometimes a reversal occurs around futures contracts' rollover dates.

snowrider

02/04/2012

Comments are welcome!

P.S., I'll be out of town next whole week and won't be able to reply to any PM or comments.

snowrider

02/12/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

1) if SPX goes to 1370 first before C5 formed, the C5 will equal C3, or may be great than C3, right ? but we know C5 can't be great than C3 according Wave Theory. How can we explain this?

C.3 = 84 (1333-1249)
C.5 could be: 1300+84=1384 if C.3=C.5
C.5 could be longer than C.3 (as long as C.3 is not the shortest was in C)

2) If C5 is really formed at 1370, the Fib 61.5% pull back target should be great than 50 point, right ?

If C.5 ends at around 1384, the ideal correction target for C is where the previous 4 ends (C.4, i.e., 1300 area)

3) how can we draw the a-b-c waves after C5 (It's not indicated in the chart ??) I mean wave 'b' is great than C5 <-- Does it mean 'extend' wave instead of a-b-c waves (purple lines) ?

The ending of C.5 is the ending of wave-C.  After that a wave-D could be formed.  We don't know if wave-D will be in regular or irregular correction form until we see the market's behavior.

snowrider

小雪，去滑雪了吗？

DVORK呢？
not4weak 发表于 2012-2-12 21:33

滑了一個星期的雪
週六半夜才回到家
一個星期沒看行情 真忙

snowrider

I'm a big fan of Elliot wave theory and harmonic trading, however you way over complicate the labeling which deters me (and probably others) from following along. Simply stating the pair and TF (in post) with wave counts 1,2,3,4 a,b,c,d and sub waves as 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d ect works just fine. This, of course, is just my opinion, in the whole scheme of things, it doesn't make much difference.

Big ups for the thread though not many people keep up with these sort of threads. So even if you don't conform to my way of thinking do keep posting charts others will surely find it helpful or at the vary least interesting.

johnny2pips - Thanks for commenting and the suggestion. Please take a look the very first post of this thread, and it will give us an idea about the convention of my wave labeling. It is actually much easier to read and much less confusing than that of most famous EW techinicians. Yes, I agree that "it doesn't make much difference" on different labeling ways because we EW techinicians speak the same language - impulsive vs corrective waves.

snowrider

太难滑了，天天在等下雪，一有雪就上山去
dvork 发表于 2012-2-15 02:30

偶 Tahoe local 的朋友剛告訴偶 今天來了 6" 下星期要來更大的

snowrider

太难滑了，天天在等下雪，一有雪就上山去
dvork 发表于 2012-2-15 02:30

偶們一群去了 Heavenly, Northstar, Kirkwood

snowrider

閒聊

偶說過N次就是不要鎖單(i.e., hedge)
做鎖單的人基本上是最不會trade的 也是最不懂得trading的
一旦一個倉給鎖了 接著就是千層鎖萬層鎖然後是鎖上加鎖
最後會搞的該賺的沒賺到 但做錯的倉是賠的滿滿的
總而言之一句話就是: 看錯行情就應當立刻一刀砍 - 認賠重做

snowrider

有人說:　"Must learn how to lock profit..."

偶就說:　如果妳認為要學("Must learn")去鎖利("lock profit")　為何不讓 profit run 呢?　為何要限制利潤的空間呢?  讓 profit run 是大道至簡的一件事就是設個 stop order 罷了 (either hard stop or mental stop)

偶所極不贊同的鎖是去 hedge (古時候那叫做鎖單) 偶不知現在國內叫那是甚麼
基本上鎖單是一種自欺的鴕鳥行為且是必註定成不了好的 trader