Daneric's Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 March
热3已有 38131 次阅读 2010-03-01 20:13I read a story today where they are already making excuses for any lower unemployment http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-market-clouded-by-storms-in-february-2010-02-28 due out
this week. Just remember this is all a game to the market movers and
they need another pump or 2 to dump their stocks. Always managing
expectations. Lovely. In the end its all BS]
McClellan's is showing negative divergence]Today's move up had the technical wave signature of a 5th wave and likely the topping-type sentiment to go along with it. Not to say that it is over. For now I converted this 5 wave move looking structure to an expanded flat on the Wilshire. The SPX still couldn't close that gap to 1116.48 and the DJIA has yet to take out the high from 2 weeks ago. To keep things in perspective here is the Wilshire5000 and the subsequent up volume ratio patterns since March 2009: The conclusion: Running out of steam. Everyone is going "All in".
Both the RUT and NASDAQ had a differing look from the November lows. The SPX, DOW and even the Wilshire had a distinctive sideways "B" area. The RUT didn't have this so much. So perhaps the RUT makes a new squeaker high to fulfill its final ABC pattern. It would have to do so in a hurry, it sure looks extended. Its possible the NASDAQ follows to a squeaker high but it certainly doesn't have to be. Also it would be fitting if the transports made a new high and the Industrials did not.
Time-wise the market has more than traced in ample time for a P2 top for the SPX and DJIA in January when it did. Perhaps some secondary indexes are finishing up and will produce non-confirmations. Personally I think the RUT leading and being "bullish" for stocks is a big crock of crap that Wall Street has fed everyone.
Any new index tops will of course divide the EW chartists into more bullish and bearish long-count camps. That would be appropriate and I hope we get some new index highs. There are too many on the bear side of the counts. The higher this sucker goes the harder it falls.
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我其实一直准备在1080~1089一线buy-dip,EW理论我是拿来观察是否有效的。万一发现自己不对立即改轩易辙。
另外:昨天上下的几率真的是50/50,我觉得跟外界消息更有关,所以Daneric's Elliott Wave预测没奏效也有情可圆。再给Daneric's Elliott Wave几天观测期。